By Imam Isah Musa, PhD.
Nigeria is blessed with vast fertile land and favourable climates that can sustain a wide range of food crops. Among them, rice and maize stand out as the twin pillars of our food system. They are not only central to family food security but also serve as the backbone of our agricultural economy, supporting more than 60 million farmers and engaging over 90 million people across their value chains.
Today, however, the very lifeline of this system is under threat. Prices of rice and maize, which ought to be relatively stable this time of year, have crashed dramatically. For consumers, this sudden fall brings a sigh of relief after two years of relentless food inflation. But beneath that relief lies a dangerous paradox: the collapse is not being driven by a bumper harvest or improved productivity but by relaxed import restrictions and unchecked inflows of foreign grain.
A False Sense of Relief
At first glance, cheaper rice and maize appear to ease the strain on struggling households. But in truth, this is a temporary reprieve with devastating long-term consequences. Farmers who toiled through a production season marked by record-high costs for fertilizer, herbicides, labour, fuel, and transport are now staring at losses. For many, the cost of production already exceeds the market price of their produce.
If this continues, Nigeria risks an agricultural disincentive spiral. Millions of smallholders may cut back or abandon farming altogether. The ripple effects will be profound—lost incomes, mounting debt defaults, job losses, and a sharp decline in agricultural GDP. What should have been a joyous harvest season is instead shaping into a period of despair and demoralization.
The Real Danger: Import Dependency
The current trajectory points towards a dangerous overreliance on food imports. This will widen Nigeria’s production deficit, weaken our food sovereignty, and increase vulnerability to global price shocks. In effect, the short-term “gain” of cheaper food could set us on a path to deeper and more sustained food insecurity.
What Must Be Done
The government cannot afford to remain passive. This is a national emergency that requires both immediate and medium-term interventions:
In the short term:
Introduce a Minimum Support Price (MSP): Guarantee farmers a baseline price for staples like maize and rice. If market prices fall below this level, government agencies should intervene and buy up the surplus.
Activate Strategic Grain Reserves: Mop up excess supply during harvest to prevent glut, stabilize prices, and release the stock during lean periods.
Offer Debt Relief: Farmers who borrowed at crippling interest rates (over 30% in some cases) must not be left to collapse under debt burdens caused by price crashes beyond their control.
In the medium term:
Reduce Production Costs: Provide affordable inputs—fertilizer, improved seeds, herbicides—on time and at scale.
Support Mechanization: Make small-scale machinery and processing equipment accessible through subsidies and leasing schemes.
Subsidize Energy for Agriculture: From solar irrigation pumps to preferential electricity tariffs, energy costs must be lowered to match the new price realities.
The Bigger Picture
If the same urgency that allowed imported grains to flood our markets were applied to lowering farmers’ production costs, Nigeria’s food system would not be at this dangerous crossroads. What is happening today is not just a price adjustment; it is a systemic threat. Farmers are in peril, food supply is at risk, and consumers may soon face an uncertain future once imports dry up or global prices spike.
Behind the recent fall in commodity prices lies a simple truth: agriculture in Nigeria remains deeply misunderstood, chronically unsupported, and dangerously exposed. Unless corrective measures are taken now, the joy of cheaper food today will become the sorrow of hunger tomorrow.
