Food prices in Nigeria have continued on a downward trend even as the Christmas season approaches, offering short-term relief to consumers but raising fresh concerns about the impact on local farmers.
Analysts attribute the price moderation largely to increased food imports aimed at cushioning the effects of high food inflation and the cost-of-living crisis. However, the influx of imported food has also squeezed farmgate prices, leaving many local producers with slim or no profit margins.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that the value of agricultural goods imported into the country rose sharply in the third quarter of the year. The NBS third-quarter foreign trade in goods report put agricultural imports at ₦1.1 trillion, representing a 25.03 per cent increase compared to ₦882.24 billion recorded in the same period of the previous year.
Recent price data confirm the easing trend across key staple foods. According to the NBS October 2025 Selected Food Price Watch report, the average price of 1 kilogramme of local rice stood at ₦1,913.78 in October, reflecting a 2.01 per cent year-on-year decline from ₦1,944.64 recorded in October 2024. The price also fell by 1.59 per cent compared to September 2025.
Beans Brown followed a similar pattern, with the average price dropping to ₦1,760.53 per kilogramme in October 2025. This represents a sharp 37.09 per cent year-on-year decline from ₦2,798.50 recorded in October 2024, alongside a 3.04 per cent decrease on a month-on-month basis.
The average price of Garri White also declined significantly, falling by 29.33 per cent year-on-year from ₦1,198.05 in October 2024 to ₦846.69 in October 2025. On a month-on-month basis, the price dropped by 2.88 per cent compared to ₦871.78 recorded in September.
Tomato prices showed a more moderate decline. The average price of 1 kilogramme of loose tomatoes fell to ₦1,269.17 in October 2025 from ₦1,465.99 a year earlier, representing a 13.43 per cent year-on-year decrease, while month-on-month prices eased by 0.83 per cent.
State-level data highlight wide price variations across the country. The October 2025 NBS state profile analysis shows that Ogun State recorded the highest average price for local rice at ₦2,163.23 per kilogramme, while Yobe State recorded the lowest at ₦1,523.47. For Beans Brown, Imo State posted the highest average price at ₦2,174.09 per kilogramme, with Yobe again recording the lowest at ₦1,263.68.
Despite the easing prices, analysts caution that the trend may not signal a structural improvement in inflation dynamics. They argue that weak consumer purchasing power remains a major factor dampening demand, alongside government intervention programmes.
They note that key inflationary pressures such as insecurity, exchange rate volatility, high energy costs and poor infrastructure remain unresolved, suggesting that the current price relief may come at the expense of domestic agricultural sustainability rather than lasting economic stability.
