Nigeria’s cocoa exports rose by 18 per cent year-on-year to 16,052 metric tonnes in July, adding to signs of increased supply from West Africa and putting pressure on global cocoa prices.
The rise in Nigerian shipments comes as cocoa markets weigh stronger supplies from major producing countries against growing concerns over the outlook for the 2026/27 season.
Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer, remains an important supplier to the global market, with the increase in July exports contributing to the recent decline in cocoa prices.
The supply picture is mixed across West Africa. In Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, the Cocoa Board estimated the country’s 2026/27 crop at 650,000 metric tonnes, down 13 per cent from 750,000 tonnes recorded in the previous season. The regulator has also warned that production could fall further to between 450,000 and 550,000 tonnes because of swollen shoot disease, ageing cocoa farms and potentially adverse weather conditions.
Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, is also facing concerns over its next main crop. Early field assessments have pointed to poor pod development and below-average cherelle formation, with preliminary estimates putting the 2026/27 crop at about 1.8 million tonnes, compared with roughly 2.2 million tonnes in 2025/26.
The potential production decline has raised concerns about global cocoa supply, particularly as weather forecasters expect an El Niño pattern that could bring warmer and drier conditions to West Africa. Such conditions can reduce soil moisture, stress cocoa trees and weaken yields.
However, current-season supplies remain relatively strong. Ivory Coast farmers have shipped about 2.11 million tonnes of cocoa to ports since October 1, 2025, through August 2, 2026, representing a 20 per cent increase from the same period last year.
Ghana has also recorded stronger production in the current marketing season, harvesting about 750,000 tonnes in 2025/26, up 25.6 per cent from 597,000 tonnes in 2024/25.
Analysts have nevertheless lowered their expectations for a global cocoa surplus in the coming season. StoneX recently cut its 2026/27 surplus forecast from 149,000 tonnes to 25,000 tonnes, citing risks to West African production, while Transgraph Consulting projected the surplus could fall to 80,000 tonnes from 415,000 tonnes in 2025/26.
Demand remains mixed across major cocoa-consuming regions. European cocoa grindings fell 4.6 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter, while North American grindings rose 7.7 per cent. Asian cocoa grindings recorded a stronger 25 per cent increase, indicating continued demand growth in the region.
Meanwhile, rising cocoa inventories remain a bearish factor for prices, with ICE cocoa stocks reaching a two-year high of 3.38 million bags in early August.
The developments highlight a divided outlook for the cocoa market, with stronger current supplies from producers such as Nigeria, Ghana and Ivory Coast weighing on prices in the short term, while disease, ageing farms, weather risks and weaker crop prospects could tighten global supplies in the 2026/27 season.
