While the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO)’s Biannual Report on Global Food Markets recorded expansion in Africa’s production of rice, Nigeria’s production outlook was dampened by hikes in input costs and difficulties marketing produce as a result of reductions in milling operations caused by high energy costs.
This is contained in the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations’ report titled, “Food Outlook: Biannual Report on Global Food Markets,” released in June.
The report highlights that while Africa is set for its third consecutive production increase, with an estimated 28.4 million tonnes of rice forecasted for 2024/25—a 4% year-on-year rise and a record high—Nigeria’s prospects are dampened. The country is grappling with escalating input and energy costs, which are hindering milling operations and complicating the marketing of produce.
In contrast, other West African nations such as Benin, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo are expected to see increased rice harvests. This positive outlook is attributed to high prevailing prices, favorable rainfall, and sustained government support.
The FAO report also notes that global supplies of most major food commodities are expected to be adequate in 2024/25. However, extreme weather, geopolitical tensions, sudden policy changes, and other factors could disrupt the global demand-supply balance, impacting prices and food security.
World outputs of rice and oilseeds are projected to reach record levels, while wheat and maize outputs are expected to decline slightly. The report forecasts that world rice trade will fall to a four-year low in 2024, dropping from 52.9 million tonnes in 2023 to 51.4 million tonnes. This decline is mainly due to anticipated import cuts in Africa, consistent with positive harvest results on the continent.
Persistent cost pressures from weak local currencies, elevated international prices, and higher transport and insurance costs could lead to reduced imports by countries including Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, and Sierra Leone.
Regarding sugar, the FAO forecasts global production for 2023/24 (October/September) at 179.4 million tonnes, a slight increase of 0.5 million tonnes (0.3%) from the previous season. Global sugar consumption is expected to rise by 2.5 million tonnes (1.4%), driven by demand in Africa and Asia, and a recovery in Europe.
The forecast for global sugar trade in 2023/24 stands at 63.3 million tonnes, a 1% increase from the previous year. Larger purchases by Asia and Africa are anticipated to offset a decline in Europe. International sugar prices, which had reached a 12-year high in September 2023, have since decreased, dropping to their lowest value since January 2023 by May 2024 due to improved global supply prospects.
The report also indicates that global wheat markets are expected to contract in 2024/25, with production, utilization, trade, and stocks all forecasted to decline from 2023/24 levels. However, ample supplies and reduced demand for feed and other uses are likely to keep wheat markets stable.