The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has projected early rainfall in at least 15 states, including Kano, Niger and Rivers, even as the Federal Government cautioned farmers against rushing to plant crops, warning that the actual rainy season has not fully commenced.
The Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, SAN, disclosed this on Tuesday in Abuja while unveiling the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) by NiMet.
He noted that although isolated early rains have been recorded in states such as Lagos, Rivers and Bayelsa, the country is yet to enter the true rainy season cycle.
Keyamo warned that extreme weather conditions are expected between March and May, urging farmers and stakeholders to rely strictly on scientific forecasts before making agricultural decisions.
The Seasonal Climate Prediction indicates significant rainfall across the southern region in 2026, alongside forecasts of early onset, varied cessation periods and heightened extreme weather events nationwide.
According to the report, early onset of rains is expected in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa and Oyo States, as well as parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa and Taraba. In contrast, Borno State is projected to experience a late onset of rainfall.
Rainfall cessation is anticipated to occur earlier than usual in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi and Niger States. However, Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa and Kaduna States are expected to witness a delayed end to the rainy season.
NiMet further projects a longer-than-normal rainy season in Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe and Taraba States. Conversely, parts of Borno, Yobe and Niger States may experience a shorter rainy season.
On total rainfall outlook, the agency anticipates normal annual rainfall amounts across most parts of the country when compared with long-term averages. Above-normal rainfall is forecast for Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom States and the Federal Capital Territory. Meanwhile, parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun States are likely to record below-normal rainfall.
The forecast also warns of severe dry spells exceeding 15 days between March and May in parts of Oyo and Ogun States. Moderate dry spells are expected in Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River and Delta States, including parts of Kogi and Kwara.
During the June–July–August period, severe dry spells lasting up to 21 days are predicted in parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara States.
The agency also projected that the Little Dry Season, commonly referred to as the “August Break,” will likely commence in late July and may be severe and prolonged in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and parts of Oyo States, lasting between 28 and 40 days. A moderate effect is expected in Ondo and parts of Kwara and Edo States.
Speaking at the unveiling, the Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Dr. Yakubu Adam Farmata, described the SCP as a critical tool for bridging climate science and national development planning.
He emphasized that the annual prediction exercise goes beyond scientific reporting, serving as a strategic platform designed to provide policymakers with timely and actionable climate intelligence.
With projections pointing to variable rainfall patterns, extreme weather episodes and prolonged dry spells, the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction demonstrates the need for careful planning across agriculture, water resources management, disaster preparedness and infrastructure development nationwide.
