Despite a recent decline in food prices across Nigerian markets, experts caution that the relief enjoyed by consumers may be temporary, as farmers continue to grapple with mounting production costs that threaten future food supply.
President of the Nigeria Agribusiness Group (NABG), Arc. Kabir Ibrahim, said the slowdown in food inflation masks a deeper crisis facing smallholder farmers.
According to him, many producers are operating at a loss, as the prices of fertilisers, agro-chemicals, and other essential inputs remain high, even while market prices for farm produce are falling.
“People see cheaper food and assume all is well,” Ibrahim said. “But farmers are barely breaking even. In many cases, they are losing money.”
He warned that unless urgent measures are taken, many small-scale farmers may abandon agriculture ahead of the 2026 planting season.
Such an outcome, he noted, would significantly reduce food supply and could trigger fresh shortages and a sharp resurgence in food inflation by mid-2026.
To prevent this scenario, Ibrahim called on the Federal Government to revive the Guaranteed Minimum Price (GMP) policy, describing it as a critical safety net that protects farmers from volatile market prices and provides incentives to sustain production.
He said the policy should be tailored to Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones and focused on major staple crops such as maize, rice, sorghum, and cassava.
Beyond price guarantees, Ibrahim stressed the need for government intervention to address the high cost of farm inputs, which he identified as one of the most serious threats to sustainable food production.
“It is misleading to celebrate falling food prices when farmers cannot afford to return to their farms next season,” he said. “If farmers give up, food scarcity is inevitable.”
Ibrahim also warned that prolonged hardship among farmers could disrupt food supply chains, with far-reaching implications for national food security and household welfare.
He emphasised that any effort to revive the GMP policy must involve extensive consultations with farmers, input suppliers, and agricultural experts to ensure realistic and transparent pricing benchmarks.
Such collaboration, he said, would help rebuild confidence and trust in the agricultural sector.
In addition, he proposed the inclusion of large-scale producers and commodity aggregators in government procurement programmes, with food purchased under the scheme distributed through food banks and targeted support initiatives for vulnerable Nigerians.
While intervention during a period of easing inflation may appear premature, Ibrahim cautioned that delaying action could expose the country to deeper economic and political challenges if food production continues to decline.
