The National Sugar Development Council NSDC and the United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service have stated that Nigeria is gradually expanding sugarcane cultivation as it seeks to reduce its heavy dependence on imported sugar, even as global output continues to climb.
According to USDA estimates, world sugar production is expected to reach about 189.32 million tonnes in the 2025 2026 season, up from 180.75 million tonnes in 2024 2025, representing an increase of nearly five percent.
Against this backdrop of rising global supply, Nigeria is pushing to strengthen its domestic base through land expansion and new investment under the second phase of its National Sugar Master Plan.
Data compiled by the NSDC show that Nigeria’s harvested sugarcane area grew from roughly 75,000 hectares in 2020 to about 100,000 hectares by 2025. Over the same period, raw cane output rose sharply from about 1.53 million tonnes to an estimated 3.33 million tonnes. The increase reflects renewed interest by both government and private investors, even though processing capacity remains limited.
Officials at the NSDC said the current expansion marks a significant shift in the structure and geography of sugar production, driven largely by the implementation of NSMP Phase Two.
The programme, launched by the Federal Government, targets domestic sugar production of two million tonnes per year by 2033 and is backed by projected investments of about 3.5 billion dollars across farms, mills and related infrastructure.
The council explained that the plan goes beyond sugar alone. It is designed to support ethanol production, electricity generation and job creation, while attracting long term private capital into the industry.
Speaking at the launch of the Sugarcane Outgrower Development Programme, the Executive Secretary and Chief Executive of the NSDC, Mr Kamar Bakrin, said the initiative would play a central role in achieving these objectives.
Bakrin noted that the outgrower scheme is intended to scale up local cultivation, cut import dependence and promote inclusive growth by linking smallholder farmers directly to large processors.
He added that rural participation is critical to increasing output and strengthening supply chains within the sector.
Further details were provided by the Head of Outgrower Management at the council, Mrs Lade Offurum. She said the programme will involve three groups of participants.
These include large scale agribusiness operators cultivating between 50 and more than 500 hectares, organised cooperatives managing clusters of 30 to 50 hectares and groups of individual farmers jointly farming clusters of at least 30 hectares.
Offurum disclosed that about 150,000 hectares nationwide have been identified for outgrower development. The land is expected to support expanded sugar, ethanol, power and animal feed production. She also said the council plans to apply stricter performance standards to major operators such as Dangote Sugar and BUA Foods to ensure faster progress.
Several states have emerged as focal points for the renewed drive. Niger State has taken a leading position after signing multiple land agreements between late 2024 and 2025. The state government has committed close to 148,000 hectares for sugar development, with plans to host six factories by 2027. Most of the projects are located between Shiroro and Minna and are being developed with Niger Foods and foreign partners including Uttam Sucrotech. Once completed, the facilities are expected to produce up to 2.5 million tonnes of sugar and 250 million litres of ethanol each year.
In Kwara State, BUA Foods is close to completing its Lafiagi Sugar Company project. By the end of 2025, the factory was reported to be about 80 percent finished and is projected to become the largest integrated sugar facility in West Africa. The estate is designed to process 10,000 tonnes of cane daily and could add about 220,000 tonnes of refined sugar and 20 million litres of ethanol annually.
Dangote Sugar is also expanding its backward integration efforts. The company is continuing work on the expansion of its Numan refinery in Adamawa, while the 78,000 hectare Tunga Sugar Project in Nasarawa is receiving a large share of a 700 million dollar investment announced in late 2025. In addition, Legacy Sugar has launched a new greenfield project in Adamawa with a target output of 100,000 tonnes per year.
Other states are seeing renewed activity. In Bauchi, UMZA Sugar has committed around 100 million dollars to an integrated sugar and rice estate. Taraba State is witnessing progress on the GNAAL Sugar project promoted by the Lee Group as well as the Lau Tau project, which aims for a processing capacity of 250,000 tonnes. In the South West, Oyo State is hosting the Brent Sugar project, which is expected to contribute an additional 100,000 tonnes to domestic supply.
Despite the growth in cane production, factory output of sugar remains modest. Between 2020 and 2025, industrial sugar production ranged from about 38,600 tonnes to roughly 105,000 tonnes, even as raw cane output exceeded three million tonnes annually. Industry figures indicate that only about 30 percent of sugarcane is processed industrially, while the rest is consumed locally as chewing cane or used for small scale syrup making.
Industrial production also suffered a setback in 2023, declining by around 35 percent due to macroeconomic challenges such as currency depreciation and higher operating costs. Even so, plantation development has continued to accelerate. Dangote Sugar, for example, has announced plans to expand its cultivated area from about 8,700 hectares to more than 24,000 hectares in the coming years.
Nigeria still relies overwhelmingly on imports to satisfy domestic demand. In 2024 and 2025, local production ranged between 40,000 and 80,000 tonnes against estimated national consumption of about 1.7 million tonnes. This means more than 95 percent of sugar consumed in the country is imported. Analysts say the success of NSMP Phase Two and related investments will be critical in narrowing this gap and reducing Nigeria’s exposure to swings in global sugar prices.
