Nigeria is projected to increase its cereal output by an estimated 2.7 million metric tonnes over the next decade, according to the newly released OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034.
The increase is attributed to rising domestic demand for staple foods and consistent improvements in crop yields.
The report, jointly published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations, offers a global analysis of agricultural and fish commodity markets.
Nigeria was named alongside India (+4.1 million tonnes) and Ethiopia (+3.2 million tonnes) as top contributors to the projected global growth in cereal production.
This trend is driven by continued dependence on staple crops and the pressure to meet the needs of Nigeria’s expanding population.
The report also projected that global cereal consumption will remain concentrated, with 48 to 65 percent occurring in the top five consumer countries of each commodity by 2034. For Nigeria, the growth in cereal production is closely tied to rising incomes and increased feed demand, particularly for maize, which is expected to dedicate up to 50 percent of its total consumption to livestock feed.
Increased feed demand across Asia is also expected to influence global trends, accounting for 56 percent of the overall rise in feed consumption due to rapid expansion of livestock sectors.
While the outlook for cereal production is positive, the report warned of several challenges facing Nigeria’s agricultural sector. These include volatile global commodity prices, driven by inflation, exchange rate fluctuations, and extreme weather events.
The report stressed the importance of sustainable agricultural practices in addressing environmental concerns, with productivity gains expected to reduce the carbon intensity of cereal production.
Nigeria is seen as a country that could benefit from such gains, particularly through investments in biotechnology, mechanisation, and precision agriculture all of which are critical to improving efficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Additionally, the report underscored the significance of international trade in ensuring food security. Nigeria, along with the broader Sub-Saharan African region, is projected to experience a 55 percent increase in net imports of basic food commodities by 2034. This trend reflects the region’s growing dependence on global markets to bridge domestic supply gaps.
However, the outlook noted that global trade can also advance sustainability goals by enabling the reallocation of production to more efficient regions helping reduce emissions and improve food system resilience.
