The national chairman of the Tomato Growers, Processors, and Marketers Association of Nigeria, Sani Danladi, has said Nigeria’s agricultural output is expected to grow in 2025 as security improves in key farming areas.
According to him, increased food production will help bring down inflation and ease the cost-of-living crisis in the country.
“There has been a noticeable drop in insecurity, kidnapping, and killings, especially since mid-2024,” he said.
Danladi explained that the improved security created better conditions for dry-season farming in late 2024. He added that if the situation continues in 2025, food production will rise, and prices will drop noting that when food production is high, prices will fall, he said.
For more than ten years, insecurity has severely affected food production in Nigeria, reducing output by 60 percent, creating shortages, and increasing the need for imports.
A report by SMB Intelligence revealed that over 1,356 farmers in northern Nigeria were killed in bandit attacks between 2020 and 2024. Similarly, Global Human Rights Nigeria reported in 2024 that 24,816 people, including farmers, lost their lives, while 15,597 were kidnapped across the country over the past five years.
Despite this, banditry, terrorism, and killings have decreased, prompting the government to lift a five-year ban on mining exploration in Zamfara, a major agricultural state.
“The improved efforts by security agencies have significantly reduced insecurity. With the mining ban lifted, Zamfara’s mining sector can start contributing to national revenue,” said Dele Alake, the Minister of Mining, in a December statement.
Ibrahim Kabiru, the national president of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), said the security situation has improved, adding that more farmers will return to their fields if the trend continues.
“We are seeing some relief from insecurity and commendable progress by the military. If this continues, many farmers will go back to their farms,” he said.
Kabiru explained that Nigeria’s food crisis is caused by multiple issues, including insecurity, climate change, high input costs, and poor infrastructure. He added that stabilizing and reducing food prices will require addressing these challenges, not just improved security.
He said that Nigeria’s food insecurity is being driven by economic instability and frequent natural disasters.
He expressed hope over the N826.5 billion allocated to the agricultural sector in the budget, describing it as a positive step that will help smallholder farmers increase production.
A 2024 survey by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) estimated that Nigerians paid N2.3 trillion in ransom from May 2023 to April 2024.
According to a report by SBM Intelligence, farmers contributed about N1.19 billion of this amount as ransom to bandits.
Amir Idris, an onion farmer and secretary of the National Onion Producers, Processors, and Marketers Association of Nigeria (Kaduna chapter), said some bandits in parts of Kaduna are beginning to surrender, which he sees as a sign of a safer farming season in 2025.
“With improved security, I believe farmers will return to areas they abandoned out of fear of being kidnapped or killed,” Amir said.
“Farmers have already started returning to those areas, and more will follow if the improved security is sustained,” he said.
He added that food prices have started to decline, with some remaining stable since December. “From December 2024 until now, food prices have largely stayed steady,” he noted.
Abiodun Olorundero, managing partner of Prasinos Farms, cautioned that the current improvement in security may not necessarily lead to higher food production, as other challenges remain.
He explained that without significant efforts to improve irrigation systems, Nigeria might face another year of rising food prices.
“Last year, flooding and climate change severely impacted food production. What has the federal government done to reduce reliance on rainfall?” he asked.
Olorundero warned Nigerians to prepare for higher food prices, stating that challenges like flooding and severe droughts in parts of the north are likely to persist in 2025.