Ifeanyi Obinefo, a Ross-Lynn Scholar and agricultural economist at Purdue University, has sounded the alarm over Africa’s worsening food insecurity, attributing it to two major threats, skyrocketing fertilizer prices and recurring climate shocks.
At the 2025 Annual Meeting of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA), Obinefo cautioned that climate disruptions are striking faster than farmers can recover, leaving millions of smallholders in an increasingly precarious position.
He explained that across Sub-Saharan Africa, farmers are battling the combined weight of inflation, poor soil health, and unpredictable rainfall patterns, a mix that continues to undermine productivity and livelihoods.
According to Obinefo, fertilizer — a crucial driver of crop yield — has become both prohibitively expensive and difficult to access for most smallholder farmers.
The region, he noted, records one of the lowest fertilizer application rates globally, averaging just 19 kilograms per hectare, compared to 135 in South Asia and 150 in Latin America.
“When fertilizer costs rise, small farmers often cut back by as much as a third,” he said. “That leads to smaller harvests, slimmer incomes, and more families slipping into hunger.”
A First-Class graduate of Agricultural Economics and Farm Management from the Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Obinefo contributed to a landmark study titled “Causes and Consequences of the 2021/22 Fertilizer Price Spike in Sub-Saharan Africa,” jointly produced by Purdue University and Sustain Africa.
The report revealed that fertilizer imports to the continent plunged by nearly 40 percent during the 2021–2022 crisis, wiping out billions of dollars in agricultural value and reducing yields across several countries.
It called for stronger regional coordination in fertilizer procurement, more investment in local blending plants, and the development of efficient trade corridors to cut reliance on volatile global markets.
Obinefo also urged African governments to rethink fertilizer subsidy programs, which he described as temporary fixes.
Instead, he recommended data-backed strategies that promote sustainable access, including targeted credit schemes, soil testing, and digital advisory platforms for farmers.
Obinefo argued that fertilizer subsidies should evolve to support more intelligent, long-term solutions, stressing that agricultural and climate policies must now be developed in tandem.
He cautioned that providing farmers with free fertilizer would not be enough if climate change continues to distort planting and harvest cycles.
“In northern Nigeria and across the Sahel, droughts, floods, and erratic rainfall are redefining what it means to farm,” he said. “When the rains arrive late or stop too soon, even the most hardworking farmer cannot recover what’s lost.”
His research shows that the combined impact of environmental shocks and market instability is worsening poverty and food insecurity in rural communities.
To counter this, he called for greater public investment in agricultural research, irrigation systems, and rural infrastructure to strengthen farmers’ capacity to adapt.
“Without infrastructure, knowledge and inputs are like seeds thrown on bare concrete, they simply can’t take root,” he remarked.
On a global scale, Obinefo urged international bodies such as the World Bank and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to help design frameworks that link productivity with affordability and climate resilience.
He added: “Data must move faster than disasters.
“If we can anticipate where the next drought or price surge will occur, we can protect farmers before devastation strikes.
Although his work is grounded in research, Obinefo said it is ultimately driven by compassion for the people behind the statistics.
“Every figure I analyze represents a farmer fighting to feed a family,” he noted.
As the global population approaches 10 billion by 2050, he stressed that achieving lasting food security depends on stabilizing the systems that sustain production.
“African farmers are not seeking sympathy. They’re asking for systems that function, fair prices, reliable inputs, and resilience against climate shocks. Give them that, and they’ll feed the world,” he said.
