The Cocoa and Coffee Farmers Alliance Association of Africa (COCEFAAA) has warned that global cocoa prices may once more exceed $10,000 per tonne in coming seasons, pointing to a steep decline in West African production.
In a statement signed by COCEFAAA Global President Comrade Adeola Adegoke, the association blamed the outlook on worsening climate conditions, the spread of crop diseases and a shift of investment away from smallholder farmers toward lab-grown cocoa alternatives.
COCEFAAA said ageing farms, the cacao swollen shoot virus (CSSV), climate shocks and the exodus of young people from cocoa farming have created persistent structural problems.
The alliance reported that Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon lost as much as 40 percent of their combined harvest during the 2023 and 2024 seasons because of erratic rainfall, prolonged dry spells and the rapid spread of CSSV. Global cocoa production fell about 13 percent in 2023/24, driving prices on the London market to a record $11,530 per tonne in June 2024.
Although prices eased to around $4,000 per tonne after a modest recovery in 2024/25, COCEFAAA projects another production decline of roughly 10 percent in 2025/26 due to the expected impact of El Niño, which could return as a “Super El Niño.”
The group also warned that investment in synthetic and cell-cultured cocoa by multinational food companies risks sidelining farmers already grappling with low incomes, disease outbreaks and limited support.
Adegoke criticized industry priorities: if firms can fund bioreactor-grown cocoa, he argued, they should be able to finance farmer welfare programs, disease-resistant seedlings and living-income initiatives.
“We are not opposed to innovation. We are opposed to innovation that is used as a substitute for justice,” he said, calling some corporate strategies an “exit strategy” rather than a sustainability plan.
COCEFAAA stressed that underinvestment in farm renewal, disease management and climate adaptation will further tighten supply while global demand for cocoa and chocolate remains strong.
The association cited the Coffee Barometer 2026 and Cocoa Barometer 2026 reports, which highlight ongoing issues with poor farmer compensation, lack of transparency in premium payments and weak corporate commitments to ensuring living incomes.
The group warned that coffee faces parallel risks from extreme weather across major producing regions in Asia and South America.
In response to these challenges, COCEFAAA announced the African Cocoa and Coffee Fiesta, scheduled for October 7–8, 2026, at NECA House, Ikeja, Lagos. Organized with Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security and the Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria, the event will gather governments, cooperatives, development financiers, researchers and international stakeholders to discuss sustainable value-chain solutions for West, Central and East Africa.
COCEFAAA urged governments, development partners, investors, researchers, civil society organizations and corporate stakeholders committed to farmer welfare to join the Fiesta; registration, sponsorship and partnership details will be released in the coming weeks.
