Africa’s growing demand for dairy products continues to outpace domestic production, leaving major markets including Nigeria, Egypt, Senegal and Zimbabwe exposed to import costs, global price volatility and persistent production challenges.
The 2025 African Agriculture Barometer on the dairy value chain, produced by FARM Foundation, Afdi and the Pan-African Farmers’ Organization (PAFO), showed that Africa imported about $7.5 billion worth of dairy products in 2023, compared with exports of only $1.1 billion, creating a $6.4 billion trade deficit.
Milk powder, fat-filled milk powder and infant formula accounted for 76 per cent of the continent’s dairy imports.
Although African milk production increased by 17 per cent, from 45.5 million tonnes in 2013 to 53.2 million tonnes in 2023, its share of global production remained at about five per cent as global output grew faster.
The situation has left consumers vulnerable to international dairy prices and supply disruptions, particularly as higher global milk-powder prices feed into local markets.
Nigeria illustrates the depth of the supply gap. A 2026 study published in Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, using FAOSTAT data, estimated that Nigeria produced about 527,000 tonnes of milk in 2022 but imported 927,000 tonnes, with only about 3,000 tonnes exported. Imports therefore accounted for roughly 64 per cent of the country’s available milk supply.
The pressure is also evident in retail prices. National Bureau of Statistics data showed that the average price of a 150-gram tin of Peak evaporated milk rose to ₦1,055.15 in April 2026, from ₦994.19 in February, representing a 6.13 per cent increase.
In response, the Federal Government is seeking private-sector investment to expand domestic production and reduce Nigeria’s estimated $1.5 billion annual dairy import bill.
Minister of Livestock Development, Idi Mukhtar Maiha, said the government’s objective was to build a sustainable dairy industry rather than simply increase cattle imports.
Under a proposed dairy public-private partnership, Hillview Ranch Enterprises Limited plans to introduce 60,000 pregnant or lactating dairy cattle in phases, beginning with 2,500 animals. The programme is projected to produce about 229.5 million litres of milk annually, while the government targets an increase in national milk production from about 700,000 tonnes to 1.4 million tonnes within five years.
However, experts say production expansion must be accompanied by improvements in animal productivity, genetics, health, electricity and cold-storage infrastructure. The Frontiers study identified these factors, alongside climate stress and the dominance of low-yield indigenous cattle, as major constraints on Nigeria’s dairy sector.
Elsewhere, Egypt produced about 5.72 million tonnes of milk in 2022 but imported approximately 2.2 million tonnes, while UN Comtrade data showed the country imported 23,620 tonnes of unsweetened solid milk and cream worth $106.52 million in 2025.
Senegal also continues to face high consumer costs, with regular milk in Dakar averaging about 1,528 CFA francs per litre in May 2026.
Zimbabwe offers another warning: its commercial dairy herd grew 7.5 per cent to 70,584 cattle in 2025, while milk production increased 6.2 per cent to 121.85 million litres. Yet production costs stood at about $0.63 per litre against an average producer price of $0.58, while retail UHT milk averaged $1.35 per litre.
The figures across the four markets suggest that boosting milk production alone will not solve Africa’s dairy challenge. Without stronger processing, cold-chain systems, animal health, genetics and market infrastructure, the continent risks increasing output while remaining dependent on imports and exposed to high consumer prices.
