The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has warned that Nigeria may experience a rise in food inflation during the third and fourth quarters of 2025 due to escalating insecurity and severe flooding in key agricultural regions.
Speaking on Tuesday, Chinyere Almona, Director-General of the LCCI, said the recent herdsmen-farmers clashes in the Middle Belt and flood-related disasters signal a likely shortfall in food harvests —a situation that could worsen food prices in the months ahead.
The warning follows the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which showed a slight decline in Nigeria’s headline inflation to 22.97 percent in May 2025, down from 23.71 percent in April. Almona described the drop as a “positive and modest shift” but urged caution, citing looming structural threats to food production and distribution.
“These recent disruptions are negative signals capable of limiting food harvest this year,” she said. “Beyond insecurity and floods, logistics and supply chain risks also threaten food availability particularly with the ongoing Middle East escalations and stalled ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine.”
She noted that rising global oil prices and trade tensions could increase the cost of importing fuel and essential goods, further compounding inflationary pressures at home.
Almona stressed that food inflation, a key driver of the headline inflation index, could spike if proactive measures are not taken. To consolidate the recent inflation gains, she called for a coordinated mix of fiscal and monetary policy responses.
She advised the government to sustain oil and gas reforms, adopt prudent monetary policies, and improve credit access for productive sectors of the economy.
However, she urged immediate investments in dry season farming, irrigation systems, and mechanization to reduce the country’s heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture.
“The government must also prioritize efficient food movement from farms to urban markets,” she said. “Fixing transport inefficiencies will help lower market prices and reduce post-harvest losses.”
According to her, public spending should focus on critical sectors with high inflation pass-through particularly food, energy, and transport while improving social safety nets to support vulnerable households.
Almona concluded by calling for bold action to address insecurity, invest in agricultural infrastructure, and improve policy coordination, warning that without tackling these structural issues, inflationary relief may not be sustained.
